2015-08-29

Will Najib Condone Violence at Bersih4?

Some of my friends think not. Here is what I think.

The point of risk management is not to address probable scenarios (given information that is available), but to address scenarios which may or may not occur subject to information that is currently unavailable (risk management therefore requires as much creativity and imagination as sales).

I have seen, on the event of previous demonstrations:
- uniformed traffic cops surrounding and stomping on civilians
- ununiformed individuals armed with batons, responding to the orders of uniformed policemen, attacking customers of restaurants
- tear gas canisters installed above the street, fired into the middle of a crowd such as to disperse it

None of this is extraordinary. However...

We know of the past and present leadership:
- Mahathir was both selfish and smart
- Abdullah was neither aggressively selfish nor smart (or he's just not yet been outed :p)
- Najib is very selfish but not very smart

... and that the latter is the combination which is to be most feared, due to the potential devastation of its bumbling follies.

All I'm saying, as usual, is be a good boy scout if you're going to attend a mob event, in the land of lawless people.

I mean, come on, we have been watching this go on for 15 to 20 years now. Back in the late 90s it was already evident from the density of most Malaysians that major change from the police state would probably require a 20 to 30 year time frame.

I have always believed that major changes from that trajectory would probably require war. If enough people believe in change, it can happen quickly, but some people will die.

Given that I believe that much, it is only reasonable for me to believe that on the other side of the political fence there are those who hold the same beliefs, but with converse interests... so to further retard the trajectory of already slow change, they must surely be willing to cause civilians to die.

Do we need to pursue the anecdotal evidence that illustrates that these points of view are perhaps held by those with vested interests, and access to lots of capital, such that they are ready, able, and willing to act against the public good? I don't think we should bother - it's easier for me to buy some stuff (bandages, vinegar, water) from a sundry shop and see if I have to use it.

:p

So... Tonight: buy many medicine - hang up white t-shirt to dry for the morning. Standby to help in case of massacre.

Note to my business partners:
"@group I'll be popping down for a little stroll in the city tomorrow morning... chaperoning my dad who is in his 60s... we will be wearing neutral t-shirts, either black or white. Just FYI, if I accidentally disappear for a few days, the blokes ( x and y) have all the important information required to get us done with renovations... for banking, look to z. :simple_smile: For those of you unfamiliar with Malaysian politics, this is erm... business as usual on an almost annual basis... I just treat it as a tourist event, and attend to help myself better understand the people of my country."

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