## 2016-11-28

### I Miss Working with Probability

Poor man's risk managment model:

Opportunities for failure, OF: the number of attempts an intruder can make in your period of concern.

Value at risk, VAR: the worst case scenario cost is usually obliteration of the operation.

Probability of Failure per OF, PFO: the probability of failure per OF.

... do the math.

By having strict laws, we reduce PFO to zero, nullifying the expected loss over the entire period.

When PFO is larger than zero, because OF is usually quite high for electronic attempts, the probability of losing VAR may be higher than intuited.

Also to be precise you'd have a whole matrix of these terms... for different kinds of failure. And the contingencies.

Ok, I just made that all up, but I'm sure the professional risk managers must have a more documented way of modeling this lol