The Constitution of Malaysia makes no mention of party politics in the appointment of the Prime Minister by the King (YDPA). The YDAP can in good faith appoint Mahathir to be the 8th Prime Minister, despite Mahathir lacking the vote from Harapan.
If the YDPA otherwise chooses to dissolve parliament, he must do so on the conviction that an election will change the composition of parliament to be significantly different from its current composition of MPs/votes. If he does not have that conviction, then he must believe that a general election would be a colossal waste of national resources, and then, he is left with only the option above.
Discussion:
I draw your attention to the often discussed pattern of the second-choice candidate winning an election. This is a pattern that is going to neatly model the YDPA's options after interviewing all 222 MPs.
Firstly,
(1.1.) IF Harapan acts as it says, and all its MPs vote for Anwar as PM,
(1.2.) AND, IF PAS+UMNO act as they say, and all their MPs vote for Mahathir as PM,
(1.3.) THEN*, there will be no individual candidate who commands the "confidence of the majority of parliament".
At such a junction, the YDPA has a choice between calling for the dissolution of parliament (general elections must follow), or in appointing a PM based on other reasoning.
Second,
Here is one possible form for that 'other reasoning':
(2.1.) Based on (1.1.) if the YDPA thinks about who Harapan MPs would place their confidence in, under a state of anarchy, or under a condition where Anwar (Harapan's first choice) is not allowed to be PM (because of 1.2.), and the YDPA is going to effortlessly conclude that the answer is Mahathir. (Sure, we can debate about Wan Azizah.)
(2.2.) Based on (1.2.) if the YDPA thinks about who where PAS+UMNO MPs would place their confidence in, under a state of anarchy, or under a condition where Mahathir (PAS+UMNO's first choice) is not allowed to be PM (because of 1.1.), and the YDPA is going to effortlessly conclude that the answer is "null: no such individual candidate exists".
Following such reasoning, the YDPA may observe that Mahathir is both [the FIRST vote of confidence from PAS+UMNO], and [the SECOND vote of confidence from Harapan]. And based on THIS REASONING ALONE, the YDPA is entitled to act reasonably within his Constitutional mandate, and to appoint Mahathir to the role of 8th non-interim Prime Minister of Malaysia, because it may be inferred that Mahathir is the individual who commands the "confidence of the majority of parliament" bar none.
However,
(6:03am)Note that (*) is not a necessary conclusion, as it simply assumes away the existence of non-Harapan-non-PAS+UMNO MPs. We don't exactly know where the others are voting, but it seems likely that they will vote for Mahathir, and that he will be appointed the proper 8th/9th Prime Minister, with a simple majority of votes.
End of main discussion.
An, aside...
(4:13 am)
Another pessimistic, and deplorable, possibility is this.
It could be that Perikatan Nasional's failure to-date is a feint. Perhaps Perikatan Nasional's tea party with YDPA was simply to communicate to YDPA a request for private interviews with all MPs, so that MPs from Harapan could vote for a PM without observation from the Harapan whip.
If this turns out to be the case, it would be evidenced by a misaligned vote, that is, if the King's count shows a majority of MPs voting for Mahathir to be PM. Because, Harapan's whip currently says that Harapan is voting for Anwar.
If this actually happens, then a return to the old Malaysian order becomes clear again. Mahathir will be PM, and party lines will be reformed as soon as (a) the private votes become public or (b) parliament is back in session, and you can actually see who's voting for whose policies.
Right now, no one knows if Perikatan Nasional has secret allies in Harapan who are waiting to deploy their vote against Anwar, to the King. This probably explains why Harapan's press conference on 26Feb was so cagey and boringly resolute
Another, aside...
(5:57 am)
Technically since parliament has not been dissolved, the 'interim PM' role is the actual 8th PM role.
Constitutionally, the 'interim PM' would be an unnumbered PM, only if Parliament had been dissolved, and the interim-PM appointed before the formation of a new parliament.
This is hairsplitting, but true.
No comments :
Post a Comment