Very Good Malaysians

A CNY review

My dad asked me what I did in college, so I gave him a quick summary. And then I added the usual addendum about being in Malaysia because I am lazy. I don't like Malaysians, I don't hate Malaysians ... I just haven't been kicked out of Malaysia yet, and I don't have to do much to hang around here.

Malaysia is good for very little. Pretty much the only thing that Malaysians are very good at is being Malaysian. Otherwise you don't generally look for globally very good things in Malaysia - that's just not what we do here.

Dad also asked me about my relationships with the various women I've brought to family reunions over the years, and I also summarised that as "social partners, sometimes intimate, but not always, without formal commitments such as marriage". He started asking me something about my view on marriage but then got distracted and changed the subject.

A partner then asked me, of all the people I'd dated, who the best fit was. Generally, I say I haven't met people with very close intellectual interests, so I just date people who I think are cute, who don't hate me. Sure, going to more educated or nerdy or privileged communities might raise the hit rate a bit, but overall dating /partnership isn't a high priority.

That's generally been my approach to taking jobs, also. To put it all into context, I'd pretty much done all the things I considered important by the time I finished college. So mostly the second-half of my life-to-date has been a matter of chasing down secondary priorities. The last two years have been mostly focused on housekeeping debt, and studying macroeconomics and physical conditioning.

Maybe I should lock down some new "top priorities", but otherwise life has been good, and I have expected it to end abruptly at any time, though that has probably been an unreasonable point of view. Albeit it is a simple, and safe one.

Bug Lives Matter

I live in a block of some 400 apartments. Sometimes someone complains that they saw a roach. One roach. Dear friend do you even know how roaches work?

The weather has been cool, and I have slept beside the balcony, with the door open. Sometimes a roach comes in. I say, hello friend, and then I kill it with nerve toxins in the cleanest way possible. It is an ordinary affair.

Some of us have been so distracted, that we have forgotten the true nature of beasts.

Beasts are simple. Expectations make them complicated.

Executive Dysfunction in the Middle Class

Not useful to help folks who turn around and pee on your stuff. Best to handoff to government. Yes? Government doesn't have a systematic fix - deems their executive function too high to warrant intervention.

That is why we have homeless people. Wait, more ... this is why we have a middle-class!

Reflecting on recent events.

United Fools of Malaysia

Malaysians are united in incompetence.

The Malay accept emotional disregulation.

The Chinese accept the disregulated demands of the former.

The Indian accept survival.

The Others accept even less.

The purpose of this post is to demonstrate that unity does not always result in prosperity.

Happy snakes, to you!

I really hate putting a price on my time

 I was asked to provide a price quote for unspecified work. This happens more often than I like. Again I'm trying to figure out what works on a spectrum :

• - very non-specific stuff maybe $20x-per-month ( $1x-per-day ) ... for office hours, on an exploratory basis. ... keyword being exploratory : postponing a month of my own work ... just to find out what other people are up to ... not exactly worth $20x, but at least it pays for itself, as a one-off sort of thing. Generally there are a lot of requests for specific outcomes from people who haven't done any homework ... so they they get charged the "IDK what I am talking about rate".
• - very sensitive and specific outcome stuff, say $1x-per-hour ( $8x-per-day ). People who have done their homework usually just need someone ... to affirm their beliefs, to review their entire masterplans, or to audit existing things, so that's very fast. 
• - long-term employment, somewhere in between those two rates ( $2x-4x per day seems reasonable )

I'm so bad at commercial stuff, that after 22 years I'm still not comfortable with my own pricing.

Developments in AI : comforting

Advances in AI efficiency are comforting. My own intuition at the moment is that it should be possible to code an AGI for under $560,000 given a lot of manually inputed data structures. But that's because my own cost of living is low. Generally I am happy that someone else is doing it because I don't see it as a hard problem, and I would rather train myself to do things I have a weaker grasp on.

Focus Turns to Hormonal Management

Information systems of the human body : all physical and emotional conditioning involves hacking hormonal cascades.

• Sad? Identify the pathway; adjust it.
• Bored? ditto
• Distracted? ditto
• Fearful / Anxious / Angry? ditto
• Tired  / low actions-per-minute? ditto

I have lived a privileged life. Figured out the things I thought were hard problems before I was 21, so next 21 years were mostly just playing games.

As our good doctors (may) testify to : the molecular structure of the body is far more complicated than the handful of data structures available to the software of the conscious mind. So these days my challenges are mainly about figuring out which hormonal cascade to actuate, and how.

Irrational points of view : lifeboat situations

Well, the beginning of ignorance is to write-off another view as irrational.

Perhaps all views are rational, only that it takes a lot of words to explain the context.

Good luck with operations. :)

Not everyone is verbally attuned.

Can look into DSM-5, verbal communication, strong in some, weak in others. Cognitive infrastructure is different in every head. Can take some time to analyse and map out.

Deescalation of defense mechanisms under tactical emergencies, will depend on other parties being able to administer specific modes of care. 

For this : can consider seeking training/coaching from relevant clinical practitioners (for you the administrator of care). More formal than casual coaches.

Care :

To be very terse (and others will be less terse), since it is a marriage, you may have to look at it as a lifeboat situation. If neither of you are going anywhere, the question is how to deescalate future "events" in the most systematic fashion.

A framework can be developed. Safewords to signal discomfort. Protocols to constrain mutual behaviour until deescalation. Deescalation may be explicit or implicit, but it helps to have an explicit  escalation signal. 👍

Design a solution (obviously not when one of you is incapacitated from verbal activity). Later 

For this : can try to do informally with or without help of third-party therapist/coach. 

 

Five Fs of Defense & 200-week Simple-moving-average

Fantastic day. Rain is heard, outside. Diet is mostly under control. and work hasn't been slapped by any major events yet.

This is my fourth year investing in global equities as a sector. ( Prior to this I had traded some individual Malaysian stocks and warrants for practice, but nothing at large. ) I am beginning to appreciate the resonance of the 200w SMA in this sector - it is also relevant to crypto markets for other reasons.

As an individual student, without a robust network or staff to do my bidding, much of my time is spent figuring out what my subconscious is doing. All emotional reactions come from external inputs ... you can get slapped only so many times before basal instincts kick in, and you either

• - freeze, 
• - fawn, 
• - growl ( warn : pre-fight ), 
• - cry ( flare ), or 
• turn away ( flight ). 

So it seems there are at least five buckets of defense mechanisms to watch out for, in any hostile commercial environment.

Mostly, I think, people gravitate towards jobs where they are not slapped too hard ... and their defense mechanisms become mollified into "culture" or a polite game between equals held in fair regard. I try to avoid being too comfortable in life, and that is my preferred grand strategy.

I guess, it's just what I have to work with for now.

The Economy of Gifts in Lieu

Case A ...

Friend : Can you give me a massage?

Me : I can send you money for a massage.

Friend : ** pissed **

Case B ...

Aunt : Can you come for CNY lunch?

Me : I've TNG-ed you a contribution for lunch, but can't commit.

Aunt : ** bemused **

Some people are offended by this behaviour. Other people treat it at face value. Ultimately it is what it is, I'm am fairly cash-strapped, but time is even more expensive than money. 

Generally the spot price of time is much lower than the futures price, because of volatility. Of course, the reason being that the spot price of time is occasionally exorbitant. 

Trump2's cryptocurrency policies (part 2 of n)

I think I don't understand the US federal reserve system yet, but these prep notes should get me enough leads to study over the next week.

1. US gov wants to spend money. US gov issues debt (treasuries), then spends that money, sending it to the US private sector (mostly).

2. US private sector lends part of that money, via money markets and deposits, to arbitrageurs (e.g. banks) who then lend that money out at a higher interest rate.

3. Investors obtaining money from (1,2.) use it to buy assets for speculative returns.

3a. With US originated assets, the money mainly remains in the US private sector. The strength of the USD versus other-state currencies is unaffected.

However, as more spending occurs at (1.), the increase in domestic money fuels domestic inflation, weakening US domestic purchasing power, which eventually trickles into increased export prices, thereby reducing US trade competitiveness, moving jobs, technology, and knowledge to other-states, thus further weakening US security versus other-states. The USD is also weakened against other-state currencies, due to reduced USD demand from reduced exports.

3b. With other-state originated assets, the money is exchanged for other-state currency, and moves to other-state private sectors. The forex activity weakens the USD, and strengthens other-state currencies.

4. In both cases, the weakened USD makes US imports more expensive, reducing the purchasing power of the US, both its public and private sectors. To strengthen its purchasing power, the US can then make policy to tighten its monetary supply (raise interest rates, sell USD-denominated securities [QT]), or make policy that forces other-states to loosen their monetary supply (lower interest rates, buy other-state-denominated assets [QE]).

The latter might include 

- making US-denominated assets more attractive to other-state investors, 

- making US exports more desirable to other-state consumers,

- making other-state assets less attractive to global investors, or

- making other-state goods and services less desirable, by any means whatsoever, including slander, sabotage, war, theft, or distraction.

5. Cryptocurrency currently, mostly originates from NGOs which are neither the US nor other-states. Thus the purchase of cryptocurrency with USD does not immediately strengthen other-state currency, while it immediately reduces USD supply. 

If a cryptocurrency originator invests USD proceeds to other cryptocurrencies only, then the USD has effectively been removed from the US domestic economy, so long as cryptocurrencies are not admitted as legal tender within the US.

If USD proceeds from the sale of cryptocurrency are spent in the US or another state, then the flow of USD roughly follows as in (3a,3b). However, the trail of money may take longer to be publicly accounted for, due to the pseudonymous and often unregulated transfer of monies through non-state NGO networks in the present. This accounting lag allows money to temporarily disappear from state documentation of capital flows, thus resulting in a lag of reaction from economic observers who rely mainly on state documentation.

Thus the US gains a little utility, over short-terms, to use cryptocurrency as a buffer or reservoir of excess USD supply. ** The policies of avoiding a US CBDC, and of not banning cryptocurrency within the US **, thus benefit the US, at least over short terms.

6. ** The additional policy of encouraging USD-denominated digital stablecoins that trade against non-state cryptocurrencies beyond state regulation (regulator oversight), to be issued by entities incorporated within the US **, benefits the US financial account by adding the equity and debt securities of those issuers to the list of assets denominated in USD, which may attract portfolio investments and capital flows from other-state investors.

7. ** The further policy of requiring USD-denominated stablecoins to be backed by US treasuries **, effectively turns compliant stablecoin issuers into an extension of the US banking system, due to the multiplication of money by issuers. An issuer that buys a US treasury is lending money to the US government for spending, and the issuance of a corresponding amount of stablecoins is ...

7a. ... when issued in exchange for USD from buyers, is simply the taking of USD deposits, under a contract with interest, and

7b. ... when issued without the taking of USD deposits (for example, when the issuer issues stablecoins to itself, and spends them in treasury operations), is effectively a multiplication of money : the same USD lent to the US government for spending, is simultaneously spent to buy something else. That something else may well be another cryptocurrency, which is subsequently traded for USD or other-state currency and spent in the US or other-state economies.