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Now that food delivery apps are popping up like mushrooms, I'm looking forward to their eventual demise - and to some innovation as the market consolidates. Without repeating too much of what's already been written, here are some brief thoughts adorning a Venn diagram.
1. From gigs and employment, to small business leadership
I expect to see INDIVIDUAL delivery riders maturing along this trajectory. Digital platforms that enable this are going to be minting it in the long run, as this is a whole new microenterprise segment.2. Sacrificing margins in order to grow volumes
I expect highly leveraged SUPER-APPS like Grab will have to embrace their advantages in digital infrastructure, and to forego some margins in order to grow volumes exponentially.They will have to either make way, or go deep on the capital inefficiency of the physical layer - and if they do this wrong, they become Wal-Mart and die. Or they become FamilyMart, and survive!3. Vertical integration while capital is scarce
Traditional E-COMMERCE is on a collision course with super-apps. Many people may not notice, but it’s less a question of whether Grab can kill Lazada, and more a question of whether Lazada wants to turn around, federate with other horizontals, and bite Grab. The e-commerce incumbents have a more efficient capital structure to begin with.Thanks for listening. I'm just up late, and working on my own ... so it's nice to have someone to write to.
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