2024-04-25 at

Binomial commitment modelling


- if I'm 100% committed to a hypothesis that something is going to decline in value, I should discard 100% of what I can


- if I'm 50% committed to a hypothesis that something is going to decline in value, I should discard 50% of what I can


- if I'm 100% committed to a hypothesis that [ something will devalue in the short-term ], and 100% committed to a hypothesis that [ the same will appreciate in the long-term ] then I should discard 50% of what I can, and reconsider that 50% later


- if I'm 50% committed to a hypothesis that [ something will devalue in the short-term ], and 100% committed to a hypothesis that [ the same will appreciate in the long-term ] then I should discard 25% of what I can, and reconsider that 25% later


I am still trying to wrap my head around this, but it seems like a reasonable fundamental approach to life in general.

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