2025-01-08 at

AI's Share of the Labour Market, in the Near Term

 In 2024, I still see senior executives who believe that AI will hit blue collar jobs first. This is a horrible error to make. AI will wipe the deck with 20% to 70% of low-end white collar jobs, first. The only white collar skills that matter for humans :

  • 1. Governance, i.e. control-as-communications.
    • 1.1. Executive judgment on legal standings, i.e. fiduciary duty. Boards and managers have a lower margin of error available, once there are fewer other humans in the system to blame.
    • 1.2. Stakeholder management, i.e. designing and operating systems over motivation and emotion, of investors, talent, and others. A board needs a minimum of one layer of executives underneath it.
    • 1.3. Grand strategy, i.e. macro-to-micro designs and their implementions, will be drafted more and more by AI. However, humans will continue to fill in the gaps because of (1.1.)

Ultimately, AI will be governed by the same laws as humans, because the incumbent legal environment which treats humans as black-boxes will apply to AI more and more. So in the end, governing machine people is not going to be very different from governing meat people.

When I began my study of commerce in 2006, I quickly learnt that I was only interested in board-level jobs. But in order to do those well, I needed to have experience of how run operations flawlessly. This will not change, with AI.

LFG

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