Policy map
- 1. USA : motivated primarily by xenophobia of Iranian independence, secondarily by appeasement of AIPAC/Israel; threatening to choke Iran
- 2. Iran : motivated by xenophobia of US interference, directly or through GCC and Israeli proxies in the region; threatening to punch GCC/6 + Israel/7
- 3. GCC : motivated by pragmatism; unwilling to anger the US along a shared materialistic axis; sipping tea and complaining
- 4. Israel : motivated by imperial security; "I will stop attacking you if you, and your proxies stop attacking me"
Geography
- 1a. Kharg is indefensible no matter who holds it, so the US threat of occupation is a more useful tool than any US occupation itself
- 1b. Khorramshahr and the Shadegan Ponds seem like nice place to set up forward logistics. So they'd have to grab it via Basra ( Iraq ), near Kuwait, or something. Running exposed flank to Al Pakhsh looks crazy, but much easier if the US ships get into the Persian gulf
- 2a. A beachhead near Bandar Abbas comes with civilian infrastructure and hostages. Not sure if anyone wants another Fajullah.
- 2b. The US fleet is going to be stuck at the Oman gulf meanwhile.
- 3. Securing both 1 and 2 would be a critical development, if successful. But again threats are more useful at this point.
Play
- 1. The root of the situation is US-Iranian animosity. Deescalation of xenophobia is key
- 2. If the US and Iran deescalate, Israel becomes political collateral, just a bargaining chip
- 3. Israel doesn't want Iran to drop more crap on them, so it has to acquiesce to US leadership, if leadership picks this path
- 4. A axial shift from Iranian isolationism to Israeli isolationism in the region is probably the funnest idea to think about.
- random thoughts of a cipher
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